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Prediction for CME (2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-17T08:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45118/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The CME may also faintly be seen to the west in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 or STEREO A COR2 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption with liftoff seen starting around 2026-03-17T05:15Z in the southeast of STEREO A EUV 304. The filament liftoff is also visible in GOES SUVI 304 imagery, centered around S05W15. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T01:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45132/1
Model Inputs:
2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=470.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T12:54Z
2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-27.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=429.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T13:42Z
2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=434.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-03-17T15:28Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-19T03:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-03-20T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260317_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.37 hour(s)
Difference: -4.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-17T16:09Z

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